Apr
With just days left before Canada’s election, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is maintaining a slight lead in public opinion polls. A recent Leger Marketing survey commissioned by The Canadian Press shows that 43% of decided voters support the Liberals, compared to 39% backing Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party.
Regional Strengths and Key Battlegrounds
Carney has garnered significant support in Ontario and Quebec, which hold 58% of the country’s seats. The Liberals have a seven-point advantage in Ontario, a region crucial for securing a win. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s Conservatives remain strong in much of western Canada. To secure victory, the Conservatives must close this gap in Ontario.
Trump’s Influence Looms Over Campaign
US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats continue to dominate the election campaign. For many voters, the key question is who is best equipped to handle Trump’s policies, especially his controversial remarks about Canada potentially becoming the 51st US state — a suggestion overwhelmingly rejected by Canadians.
Carney Maintains Lead as Preferred Prime Minister
Carney is the top choice for prime minister, with 41% support in the Leger poll, a 3-point increase from the previous week. Poilievre trails at 31%. The results reflect shifting political dynamics after televised debates held on April 16 and 17.
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Gender Dynamics and Voter Preferences
The poll reveals a strong preference for Carney among female voters, who favor the Liberals 46% to 35%. Male support, however, is more evenly split. Young voters are gravitating toward the Conservatives, while older voters lean toward the Liberals. This trend highlights the ongoing shift in Canadian political preferences.
Quebec Shows Significant Shift Toward Liberals
Carney campaigned aggressively in Quebec, where the Liberals now lead the Bloc Quebecois by 16 points, a significant improvement from the 2021 election. Quebec has become a key battleground, with its political dynamics rapidly changing in favor of the Liberals.
NDP Support Dips, Boosting Liberal Chances
Support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) has fallen sharply, with only 8% of Canadians backing the party, down from 18% in 2021. This decline benefits the Liberals, as it reduces the potential for Conservative candidates to gain traction through a split progressive vote.
Early Voting Shows Strong Turnout
As Election Day approaches on April 28, over 7.3 million Canadians have already voted in advance polls, marking a 25% increase from the 2021 election. With a population of over 41 million, the early turnout indicates strong voter engagement and a highly anticipated election outcome.
